Retailers report a sharp August after a stronger July

The CBI's distributive trades survey turned sharply negative in August, with the sales-volume balance falling to −48 after a stronger July reading.

The balance is the share of retailers reporting rising sales minus those reporting falls, so −48 means the sector overwhelmingly saw volumes decline on a year earlier.

It is a jarring number next to the month's other consumer signals — confidence at a two-year high, a strong PMI. The survey's own forward-looking component softens the contradiction: retailers expect September to be firmer.

The honest reading is that hard retail data will have to arbitrate. Survey balances this volatile month-to-month are better at direction than magnitude.